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Levante W vs Sevilla W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Levante W
Levante W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sevilla W
Sevilla W
10/5/2024Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 5Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Levante W55%
×Draw23%
Sevilla W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante W
1.87
Sevilla W
1.11

Levante W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 118 away

creates per match

Levante W
1.88
Sevilla W
1.01

allows per match

Levante W
1.22
Sevilla W
1.86

finishing

Levante W+0.00on par
Sevilla W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante W ↓

Sevilla W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levante W or draw
78%
Levante W or Sevilla W
77%
Draw or Sevilla W
45%

Winning margin

Levante W wins by 2+
31%
Sevilla W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Levante W 1+ goals
85%
Levante W 2+ goals
56%
Levante W 3+ goals
29%
Sevilla W 1+ goals
67%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
30%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Levante W (draw refunded)
71%
Sevilla W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

Sevilla W away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante W attack 1.88 + Sevilla W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.87

Sevilla W attack 1.01 + Levante W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Levante W scores more
55%
level
23%
Sevilla W scores more
22%

Levante W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Levante W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Esther SullastresSevilla WSevilla W · G
7.6

Match Events

24'
Ivonne Chacón
56'
Fatou Kanteh← Raquel Morcillo
58'
María Molina
67'
Paula Partido← Lucía Moral
68'
Diana Gomes
73'
María de Alharilla← María Gabaldón
73'
A. Lahmari← Daniela Arques
75'
María Alharilla Casado
81'
M. Cortés← Gemma Gili
83'
R. Carrasco← Ángela Sosa
87'
Teresa Mérida
89'
Anissa Lahmari

Possession

57%Levante

Shots

7Levante

Pass accuracy

52%Levante

Statistics

LevanteSevilla
Overview
57%Possession43%
7Total Shots11
3Corners3
18Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots11
2On Target3
3Off Target6
2Blocked2
4Inside Box8
3Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
434Total Passes327
335Accurate Passes236
77%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls8
5Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Levante W vs Sevilla W

Levante W and Sevilla W drew 0-0 in Primera División Femenina on October 5, 2024.

Levante W controlled possession (57%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1 in Buñol.