Levante W 1–2 Athletic Club W: Result & Stats

Levante W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Athletic Club W

3/10/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 19Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Levante W49%

×Draw24%

Athletic Club W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levante WExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.21

Levante W

1.71

Athletic Club W

1.21

Levante W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 120 away

1.88

creates per match

1.21

1.22

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Levante W

1.88

Athletic Club W

1.21

allows per match

Levante W

1.22

Athletic Club W

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante W+0.00on par

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante W ↓

Athletic Club W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Levante W or draw

73%

Levante W or Athletic Club W

76%

Draw or Athletic Club W

51%

Winning margin

Levante W wins by 2+

26%

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Levante W 1+ goals

82%

Levante W 2+ goals

51%

Levante W 3+ goals

24%

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

70%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

34%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Levante W (draw refunded)

64%

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante W attack 1.88 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Levante W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Levante W scores more

49%

level

24%

Athletic Club W scores more

27%

Levante W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Levante W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff