Levante 4–1 Villarreal II: Result & Stats

Levante

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Villarreal II

Cantero 90+3'

Jonathan Montiel 86'

Brugui 71'

Soldado 1'

Sergio Lozano 53'

9/10/2022

Segunda División · Round 5Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Levante55%

×Draw25%

Villarreal II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchVillarreal II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.85

Levante

1.59

Villarreal II

0.85

Levante creates 87% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 42 away

1.55

creates per match

0.81

0.90

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Levante

1.55

Villarreal II

0.81

allows per match

Levante

0.90

Villarreal II

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante+0.00on par

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Villarreal II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Levante or draw

80%

Levante or Villarreal II

75%

Draw or Villarreal II

45%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

29%

Villarreal II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

80%

Levante 2+ goals

47%

Levante 3+ goals

21%

Villarreal II 1+ goals

57%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

21%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

73%

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.55 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Levante defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Levante scores more

55%

level

25%

Villarreal II scores more

20%

Levante at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Jonathan Montiel

Levante · M

8.0

Match Events

1'

Soldado↳ Dani Cárdenas

4'

Roberto SoldadoGoal confirmed

6'

28'

33'

37'

45+1'

48'

50'

53'

Sergio Lozano↳ Fer Niño

55'

Javi Ontiveros← Diego Collado

69'

Brugui← Rober Ibáñez

69'

M. Bouldini← Soldado

69'

Cantero← Jorge de Frutos

71'

Brugui

76'

Pablo Martínez← Wesley Moraes

81'

Arana← Fer Niño

81'

Sergio Carreira← Migue Leal

81'

Antonio Pacheco← Rodri Alonso

86'

Jonathan Montiel↳ Cantero

87'

H. Hassan← T. Ojeda

90'

Roger Brugué

90'

Hugo Redón← Jonathan Montiel

90+3'

Cantero↳ M. Bouldini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevanteVillarreal

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots13

5Corners2

12Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots13

6On Target3

6Off Target7

2Blocked3

7Inside Box1

7Outside Box12

Passing

44%Possession56%

320Total Passes415

250Accurate Passes330

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

5Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0