Levante 0–2 Real Madrid: Result & Stats | La Liga

Levante

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Madrid

10/4/2020

La Liga · Round 5Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Levante36%

×Draw24%

Real Madrid40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.59

Levante

1.49

Real Madrid

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

1.58

creates per match

1.71

1.47

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Levante

1.58

Real Madrid

1.71

allows per match

Levante

1.47

Real Madrid

1.40

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Levante-0.21scores less

Real Madrid+0.08on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Real Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Levante or draw

60%

Levante or Real Madrid

76%

Draw or Real Madrid

64%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

17%

Real Madrid wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

77%

Levante 2+ goals

44%

Levante 3+ goals

19%

Real Madrid 1+ goals

80%

Real Madrid 2+ goals

47%

Real Madrid 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

47%

Real Madrid (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Real Madrid away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.40 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.58 + Real Madrid defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.49

Real Madrid attack 1.71 + Levante defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Levante scores more

36%

level

24%

Real Madrid scores more

40%

Real Madrid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff