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Levante vs Huesca — Segunda División 2018

Levante
Levante
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huesca
Huesca
12/22/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Levante47%
×Draw27%
Huesca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante
1.38
Huesca
0.93

Levante creates 48% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 127 away

creates per match

Levante
1.55
Huesca
0.93

allows per match

Levante
0.92
Huesca
1.20

finishing

Levante+0.00on par
Huesca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Huesca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Levante or draw
75%
Levante or Huesca
73%
Draw or Huesca
53%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+
23%
Huesca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals
75%
Levante 2+ goals
40%
Levante 3+ goals
16%
Huesca 1+ goals
61%
Huesca 2+ goals
24%
Huesca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)
65%
Huesca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Huesca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.55 + Huesca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Huesca attack 0.93 + Levante defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Levante scores more
47%
level
27%
Huesca scores more
25%

Levante at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levante vs Huesca

Levante and Huesca drew 1-1 in Segunda División on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia.