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Levante vs Castellón — Segunda División 2018

Levante
Levante
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Castellón
Castellón
3/23/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 32Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Levante49%
×Draw26%
Castellón25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante
1.54
Castellón
1.03

Levante creates 50% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

creates per match

Levante
1.55
Castellón
1.14

allows per match

Levante
0.92
Castellón
1.53

finishing

Levante+0.00on par
Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Castellón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Levante or draw
75%
Levante or Castellón
74%
Draw or Castellón
51%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+
25%
Castellón wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals
79%
Levante 2+ goals
45%
Levante 3+ goals
20%
Castellón 1+ goals
64%
Castellón 2+ goals
28%
Castellón 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)
66%
Castellón (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.55 + Castellón defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Castellón attack 1.14 + Levante defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Levante scores more
49%
level
26%
Castellón scores more
25%

Levante at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levante vs Castellón

Levante beat Castellón 3-2 in Segunda División on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia.