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Levante vs Burgos — Segunda División 2018

Levante
Levante
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Burgos
Burgos
12/1/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Levante50%
×Draw27%
Burgos23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante
1.40
Burgos
0.85

Levante creates 65% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 105 away

creates per match

Levante
1.55
Burgos
0.79

allows per match

Levante
0.92
Burgos
1.25

finishing

Levante+0.00on par
Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Levante or draw
77%
Levante or Burgos
73%
Draw or Burgos
50%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+
24%
Burgos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals
75%
Levante 2+ goals
41%
Levante 3+ goals
17%
Burgos 1+ goals
57%
Burgos 2+ goals
21%
Burgos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)
69%
Burgos (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.25 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.55 + Burgos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Burgos attack 0.79 + Levante defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Levante scores more
50%
level
27%
Burgos scores more
23%

Levante at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levante vs Burgos

Levante beat Burgos 3-1 in Segunda División on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia.