Levante vs Barcelona — La Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 19+ matches
Levante32%
Barcelona45%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Barcelona creates 20% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Levante ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Levante at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches
Barcelona away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.45 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Levante attack 1.58 + Barcelona defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52
Barcelona attack 2.17 + Levante defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.82
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Barcelona at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Real MadridBarcelona
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Granada CF
Getafe
Valencia
Osasuna
Athletic ClubLevante
Valladolid
Eibar
Real Betis
Alaves
Celta Vigo
Leganes
Mallorca
EspanyolIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Levante host Barcelona on Tuesday, 11 May 2021 at 20:00. The match is part of the La Liga 2018/2019 season.
La Liga: Levante 3–3 Barcelona
Levante and Barcelona drew 3-3 in La Liga on May 11, 2021.
Goals: L. Messi (25'), Pedri (34'), Melero (57'), Morales (60'), O. Dembélé (64'), Sergio León (83').
Barcelona controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 16.
The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia.