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Levante II vs Rayo Ibense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Levante II
Levante II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Ibense
Rayo Ibense
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Levante II57%
×Draw26%
Rayo Ibense17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante II
1.52
Rayo Ibense
0.70

Levante II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 49 away

creates per match

Levante II
1.32
Rayo Ibense
0.63

allows per match

Levante II
0.76
Rayo Ibense
1.73

finishing

Levante II+0.00on par
Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante II ↓

Rayo Ibense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Levante II or draw
83%
Levante II or Rayo Ibense
74%
Draw or Rayo Ibense
43%

Winning margin

Levante II wins by 2+
30%
Rayo Ibense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Levante II 1+ goals
78%
Levante II 2+ goals
45%
Levante II 3+ goals
20%
Rayo Ibense 1+ goals
50%
Rayo Ibense 2+ goals
16%
Rayo Ibense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Levante II (draw refunded)
77%
Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.76 · 68 matches

Rayo Ibense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante II attack 1.32 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rayo Ibense attack 0.63 + Levante II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Levante II scores more
57%
level
26%
Rayo Ibense scores more
17%

Levante II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Levante II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Levante II 0–0 Rayo Ibense

Levante II and Rayo Ibense drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial in Buñol.