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Levante II vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Levante II
Levante II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hércules II
Hércules II
9/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Levante II48%
×Draw29%
Hércules II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante II
1.27
Hércules II
0.79

Levante II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 78 away

creates per match

Levante II
1.32
Hércules II
0.81

allows per match

Levante II
0.76
Hércules II
1.22

finishing

Levante II+0.00on par
Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante II ↓

Hércules II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Levante II or draw
77%
Levante II or Hércules II
71%
Draw or Hércules II
52%

Winning margin

Levante II wins by 2+
22%
Hércules II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Levante II 1+ goals
72%
Levante II 2+ goals
36%
Levante II 3+ goals
14%
Hércules II 1+ goals
55%
Hércules II 2+ goals
19%
Hércules II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Levante II (draw refunded)
67%
Hércules II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.76 · 68 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante II attack 1.32 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Levante II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Levante II scores more
48%
level
29%
Hércules II scores more
23%

Levante II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Levante II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Levante II 1 – 1 Hércules II

Levante II and Hércules II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial in Buñol.