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Levante II vs Castellonense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Levante II
Levante II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castellonense
Castellonense
1/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 18Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Levante II41%
×Draw30%
Castellonense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante II
1.18
Castellonense
0.94

Levante II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Levante II
1.32
Castellonense
1.12

allows per match

Levante II
0.76
Castellonense
1.04

finishing

Levante II+0.00on par
Castellonense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante II ↓

Castellonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Levante II or draw
71%
Levante II or Castellonense
70%
Draw or Castellonense
59%

Winning margin

Levante II wins by 2+
18%
Castellonense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Levante II 1+ goals
69%
Levante II 2+ goals
33%
Levante II 3+ goals
12%
Castellonense 1+ goals
61%
Castellonense 2+ goals
24%
Castellonense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Levante II (draw refunded)
59%
Castellonense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.76 · 68 matches

Castellonense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante II attack 1.32 + Castellonense defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Castellonense attack 1.12 + Levante II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Levante II scores more
41%
level
30%
Castellonense scores more
29%

Levante II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Levante II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Levante II 1 – 0 Castellonense

Levante II beat Castellonense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial in Buñol.