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Levante II vs Buñol — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Levante II
Levante II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Buñol
Buñol
4/4/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 29Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levante II51%
×Draw26%
Buñol22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante II
1.48
Buñol
0.88

Levante II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Levante II
1.32
Buñol
1.00

allows per match

Levante II
0.76
Buñol
1.65

finishing

Levante II+0.00on par
Buñol+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante II ↓

Buñol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Levante II or draw
78%
Levante II or Buñol
74%
Draw or Buñol
49%

Winning margin

Levante II wins by 2+
26%
Buñol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Levante II 1+ goals
77%
Levante II 2+ goals
43%
Levante II 3+ goals
19%
Buñol 1+ goals
59%
Buñol 2+ goals
22%
Buñol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Levante II (draw refunded)
70%
Buñol (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.76 · 68 matches

Buñol away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante II attack 1.32 + Buñol defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Buñol attack 1.00 + Levante II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Levante II scores more
51%
level
26%
Buñol scores more
22%

Levante II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Levante II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levante II vs Buñol

Levante II beat Buñol 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial in Buñol.