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Levanger vs Ullern — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Levanger
Levanger
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ullern
Ullern
11/11/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26TOBB ARENA Levanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levanger68%
×Draw17%
Ullern15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levanger
2.67
Ullern
1.18

Levanger creates 126% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 13 away

creates per match

Levanger
2.35
Ullern
1.08

allows per match

Levanger
1.27
Ullern
3.00

finishing

Levanger+0.00on par
Ullern+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levanger ↓

Ullern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Levanger or draw
85%
Levanger or Ullern
83%
Draw or Ullern
32%

Winning margin

Levanger wins by 2+
47%
Ullern wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Levanger 1+ goals
93%
Levanger 2+ goals
74%
Levanger 3+ goals
49%
Ullern 1+ goals
69%
Ullern 2+ goals
33%
Ullern 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Levanger (draw refunded)
82%
Ullern (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levanger at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.27 · 63 matches

Ullern away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levanger attack 2.35 + Ullern defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Ullern attack 1.08 + Levanger defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Levanger scores more
68%
level
17%
Ullern scores more
15%

Levanger at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Levanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Levanger 2–0 Ullern

Levanger beat Ullern 2-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at TOBB ARENA Levanger in Levanger.