Levanger 0–2 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Levanger

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fredrikstad

J. Veteli 88'

T. Nilsen 36'

6/15/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 10TOBB ARENA Levanger (Levanger)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Levanger20%

×Draw20%

Fredrikstad60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevangerExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.18

Levanger

1.18

Fredrikstad

2.18

Fredrikstad creates 85% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.36

creates per match

2.63

1.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Levanger

1.36

Fredrikstad

2.63

allows per match

Levanger

1.73

Fredrikstad

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levanger+0.00on par

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levanger ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Levanger or draw

40%

Levanger or Fredrikstad

80%

Draw or Fredrikstad

80%

Winning margin

Levanger wins by 2+

8%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Levanger 1+ goals

69%

Levanger 2+ goals

33%

Levanger 3+ goals

12%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

89%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

64%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Levanger (draw refunded)

25%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levanger at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levanger attack 1.36 + Fredrikstad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fredrikstad attack 2.63 + Levanger defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Levanger scores more

20%

level

20%

Fredrikstad scores more

60%

Fredrikstad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

T. Nilsen

64'

A. Gundersen← B. Rahhaoui

66'

L. Reuterswärd← A. Hagen

73'

G. Buzuku← E. Hajdari

73'

K. Sellin← T. Nilsen

76'

V. Voll← M. Sandrakumar

86'

Maikel Nieves← T. Drage

88'

J. Veteli

Levanger

Fredrikstad

1

4

26

18

28

35

▼

Drage

14

Solberg

7

⚽

Veteli

21

▼

Hagen

23

Hagen

9

⚽

▼

Nilsen

1

Hadaya

2

▼

3

17

15

7

14

▼

Hajdari

22

Taddese

32

Sundnes

11

▼

Rahhaoui

25

Sereba

Manager: M. Powell

64'▲A. Gundersen←▼B. Rahhaoui

73'▲G. Buzuku←▼E. Hajdari

76'▲V. Voll←▼M. Sandrakumar

Levanger substitutes

27Gundersen10Buzuku8Voll9Sakshaug12Byttingsvik16Haidar20Teigen

Manager: B. Johansen

66'▲L. Reuterswärd←▼A. Hagen

73'▲K. Sellin←▼T. Nilsen

86'▲Maikel Nieves←▼T. Drage

Fredrikstad substitutes

10Reuterswärd19Sellin11Nieves13Karstensen22Getz