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Levanger vs Floro — 1. Division 2018

Levanger
Levanger
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Floro
Floro
10/21/20181. Division1. Division · Round 27TOBB ARENA Levanger (Levanger)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Levanger47%
×Draw24%
Floro29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levanger
1.73
Floro
1.30

Levanger creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Levanger
1.40
Floro
0.73

allows per match

Levanger
1.87
Floro
2.07

finishing

Levanger+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levanger ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Levanger or draw
71%
Levanger or Floro
76%
Draw or Floro
53%

Winning margin

Levanger wins by 2+
25%
Floro wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Levanger 1+ goals
82%
Levanger 2+ goals
52%
Levanger 3+ goals
25%
Floro 1+ goals
73%
Floro 2+ goals
37%
Floro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Levanger (draw refunded)
62%
Floro (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levanger at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Floro away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levanger attack 1.40 + Floro defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.73

Floro attack 0.73 + Levanger defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Levanger scores more
47%
level
24%
Floro scores more
29%

Levanger at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Levanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levanger vs Floro

Floro beat Levanger 1-0 in 1. Division on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at TOBB ARENA Levanger (Levanger).