Levanger 1–2 Asane: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Levanger

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Asane

R. Stene 78'

A. Fantoft 87', 79'

7/29/2018

1. Division · Round 17TOBB ARENA Levanger (Levanger)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Levanger41%

×Draw24%

Asane36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevangerExpected goals in this matchAsane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.52

Levanger

1.63

Asane

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 113 away

1.38

creates per match

1.28

1.75

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Levanger

1.38

Asane

1.28

allows per match

Levanger

1.75

Asane

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levanger+0.00on par

Asane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levanger ↓

Asane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Levanger or draw

64%

Levanger or Asane

76%

Draw or Asane

59%

Winning margin

Levanger wins by 2+

20%

Asane wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Levanger 1+ goals

80%

Levanger 2+ goals

48%

Levanger 3+ goals

22%

Asane 1+ goals

78%

Asane 2+ goals

45%

Asane 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Levanger (draw refunded)

53%

Asane (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levanger at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

Asane away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.89 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levanger attack 1.38 + Asane defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Asane attack 1.28 + Levanger defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Levanger scores more

41%

level

24%

Asane scores more

36%

Levanger at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Levanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

A. Fantoft← S. Hagos

72'

H. Taddese← A. Peterson

72'

K. Nissen← J. Aas

76'

D. Antwi← H. Lorentzen

76'

M. Ogungbaro← S. Lassen

78'

79'

82'

87'

Levanger

Asane

12

25

4

27

11

10

▼

Hagos

7

Kristoffe

19

▼

Lassen

8

Hestetun

18

Huseklepp

21

▼

1

3

19

4

6

7

▼

Peterson

23

▼

Lopez

15

Lorentsen

10

▼

Aas

13

⚽

Stene

9

Hajdari

Manager: R. Naustan

72'▲H. Taddese←▼A. Peterson

72'▲K. Nissen←▼J. Aas

82'▲V. Voll←▼Adria Lopez

Levanger substitutes

22Taddese11Nissen8Voll12Byttingsvik24Strand28Valberg20Teigen

Manager: M. Mjelde

65'▲A. Fantoft←▼S. Hagos

76'▲D. Antwi←▼H. Lorentzen

76'▲M. Ogungbaro←▼S. Lassen

Asane substitutes

6Fantoft33Antwi30Ogungbaro1Østgaard17Harris