Levadiakos 1–3 PAS Giannina: Result & Stats

Levadiakos

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

PAS Giannina

1/7/2023

Super League 1 · Round 17Stadio Levadias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Levadiakos47%

×Draw26%

PAS Giannina27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevadiakosExpected goals in this matchPAS Giannina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Levadiakos

1.50

PAS Giannina

1.08

Levadiakos creates 39% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 83 away

1.40

creates per match

0.88

1.28

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Levadiakos

1.40

PAS Giannina

0.88

allows per match

Levadiakos

1.28

PAS Giannina

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levadiakos+0.00on par

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

PAS Giannina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw

73%

Levadiakos or PAS Giannina

74%

Draw or PAS Giannina

53%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+

23%

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals

78%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

44%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

19%

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

66%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

29%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

63%

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.28 · 65 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 1.40 + PAS Giannina defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Levadiakos defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Levadiakos scores more

47%

level

26%

PAS Giannina scores more

27%

Levadiakos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Levadiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff