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Léttir vs Vídir — Cup 2019

Léttir
Léttir
FT
1 – 2
Vídir
Vídir
4/23/2021CupCup · 1st RoundHertz völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Léttir26%
×Draw17%
Vídir57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Léttir
2.15
Vídir
3.13

Vídir creates 46% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Léttir
2.50
Vídir
1.60

allows per match

Léttir
4.67
Vídir
1.80

finishing

Léttir+0.00on par
Vídir+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Léttir ↓

Vídir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Léttir or draw
43%
Léttir or Vídir
83%
Draw or Vídir
74%

Winning margin

Léttir wins by 2+
13%
Vídir wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Léttir 1+ goals
88%
Léttir 2+ goals
63%
Léttir 3+ goals
36%
Vídir 1+ goals
95%
Vídir 2+ goals
81%
Vídir 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Léttir (draw refunded)
32%
Vídir (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Léttir at home — creates 2.50, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

Vídir away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Léttir attack 2.50 + Vídir defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vídir attack 1.60 + Léttir defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Léttir scores more
26%
level
17%
Vídir scores more
57%

Vídir at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vídir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Léttir 1–2 Vídir

Vídir beat Léttir 2-1 in Cup on April 23, 2021.

The match was played at Hertz völlurinn in Reykjavík.