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Léttir vs Reynir — Cup 2019

Léttir
Léttir
FT
1 – 9
Reynir
Reynir
6/7/2020CupCup · 1st RoundHertz völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Léttir21%
×Draw15%
Reynir64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Léttir
2.40
Reynir
4.04

Reynir creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Léttir
2.50
Reynir
3.40

allows per match

Léttir
4.67
Reynir
2.30

finishing

Léttir+0.00on par
Reynir+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Léttir ↓

Reynir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
87%13%4.5
74%26%

Double chance

Léttir or draw
36%
Léttir or Reynir
85%
Draw or Reynir
79%

Winning margin

Léttir wins by 2+
11%
Reynir wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Léttir 1+ goals
91%
Léttir 2+ goals
69%
Léttir 3+ goals
42%
Reynir 1+ goals
98%
Reynir 2+ goals
90%
Reynir 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Léttir (draw refunded)
25%
Reynir (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Léttir at home — creates 2.50, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

Reynir away — creates 3.40, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Léttir attack 2.50 + Reynir defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.40

Reynir attack 3.40 + Léttir defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Léttir scores more
21%
level
15%
Reynir scores more
64%

Reynir at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Reynir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Léttir 1–9 Reynir

Reynir beat Léttir 9-1 in Cup on June 7, 2020.

The match was played at Hertz völlurinn in Reykjavík.