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Letohrad vs Tochovice — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Letohrad
Letohrad
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tochovice
Tochovice
5/7/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 24Stadion FK OEZ Letohrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Letohrad49%
×Draw22%
Tochovice29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Letohrad
1.93
Tochovice
1.44

Letohrad creates 34% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

creates per match

Letohrad
1.38
Tochovice
1.13

allows per match

Letohrad
1.75
Tochovice
2.47

finishing

Letohrad+0.00on par
Tochovice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Letohrad ↓

Tochovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Letohrad or draw
71%
Letohrad or Tochovice
78%
Draw or Tochovice
51%

Winning margin

Letohrad wins by 2+
28%
Tochovice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Letohrad 1+ goals
85%
Letohrad 2+ goals
57%
Letohrad 3+ goals
30%
Tochovice 1+ goals
76%
Tochovice 2+ goals
42%
Tochovice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Letohrad (draw refunded)
63%
Tochovice (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Letohrad at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Tochovice away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Letohrad attack 1.38 + Tochovice defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.93

Tochovice attack 1.13 + Letohrad defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Letohrad scores more
49%
level
22%
Tochovice scores more
29%

Letohrad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Letohrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Letohrad vs Tochovice

Letohrad beat Tochovice 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK OEZ Letohrad in Letohrad.