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Letohrad vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Letohrad
Letohrad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
3/7/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 16Stadion FK OEZ Letohrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Letohrad55%
×Draw20%
Sokol Libiš25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Letohrad
2.21
Sokol Libiš
1.44

Letohrad creates 53% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 26 away

creates per match

Letohrad
1.38
Sokol Libiš
1.12

allows per match

Letohrad
1.75
Sokol Libiš
3.04

finishing

Letohrad+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Letohrad ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Letohrad or draw
75%
Letohrad or Sokol Libiš
80%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
45%

Winning margin

Letohrad wins by 2+
33%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Letohrad 1+ goals
89%
Letohrad 2+ goals
65%
Letohrad 3+ goals
38%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
76%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
42%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Letohrad (draw refunded)
69%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Letohrad at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Letohrad attack 1.38 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sokol Libiš attack 1.12 + Letohrad defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Letohrad scores more
55%
level
20%
Sokol Libiš scores more
25%

Letohrad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Letohrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Letohrad 1–0 Sokol Libiš

Letohrad beat Sokol Libiš 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK OEZ Letohrad.