Letohrad 0–0 Horky nad Jizerou: Result & Stats

Letohrad

FT

0 – 0

Horky nad Jizerou

10/2/2021

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 10Stadion FK OEZ Letohrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Letohrad53%

×Draw22%

Horky nad Jizerou26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LetohradExpected goals in this matchHorky nad Jizerou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.35

Letohrad

2.01

Horky nad Jizerou

1.35

Letohrad creates 49% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 25 away

1.38

creates per match

0.96

1.75

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Letohrad

1.38

Horky nad Jizerou

0.96

allows per match

Letohrad

1.75

Horky nad Jizerou

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Letohrad+0.00on par

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Letohrad ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Letohrad or draw

74%

Letohrad or Horky nad Jizerou

78%

Draw or Horky nad Jizerou

47%

Winning margin

Letohrad wins by 2+

31%

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Letohrad 1+ goals

87%

Letohrad 2+ goals

59%

Letohrad 3+ goals

32%

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

74%

Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

39%

Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Letohrad (draw refunded)

67%

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Letohrad at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Letohrad attack 1.38 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.01

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Letohrad defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Letohrad scores more

53%

level

22%

Horky nad Jizerou scores more

26%

Letohrad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Letohrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff