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Letohrad vs Hlinsko — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Letohrad
Letohrad
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Hlinsko
Hlinsko
11/12/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 15Stadion FK OEZ Letohrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Letohrad45%
×Draw23%
Hlinsko33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Letohrad
1.84
Hlinsko
1.55

Letohrad creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 69 away

creates per match

Letohrad
1.38
Hlinsko
1.35

allows per match

Letohrad
1.75
Hlinsko
2.30

finishing

Letohrad+0.00on par
Hlinsko+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Letohrad ↓

Hlinsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Letohrad or draw
67%
Letohrad or Hlinsko
77%
Draw or Hlinsko
55%

Winning margin

Letohrad wins by 2+
24%
Hlinsko wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Letohrad 1+ goals
84%
Letohrad 2+ goals
55%
Letohrad 3+ goals
28%
Hlinsko 1+ goals
79%
Hlinsko 2+ goals
46%
Hlinsko 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Letohrad (draw refunded)
58%
Hlinsko (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Letohrad at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Hlinsko away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.30 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Letohrad attack 1.38 + Hlinsko defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hlinsko attack 1.35 + Letohrad defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Letohrad scores more
45%
level
23%
Hlinsko scores more
33%

Letohrad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Letohrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Letohrad 1–4 Hlinsko

Hlinsko beat Letohrad 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK OEZ Letohrad in Letohrad.