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Letohrad vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Letohrad
Letohrad
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
10/29/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 13Stadion FK OEZ Letohrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Letohrad41%
×Draw24%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Letohrad
1.65
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

creates per match

Letohrad
1.38
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.30

allows per match

Letohrad
1.75
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.93

finishing

Letohrad+0.00on par
Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Letohrad ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Letohrad or draw
65%
Letohrad or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
76%
Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
59%

Winning margin

Letohrad wins by 2+
21%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Letohrad 1+ goals
81%
Letohrad 2+ goals
49%
Letohrad 3+ goals
23%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
78%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
45%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Letohrad (draw refunded)
54%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Letohrad at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Letohrad attack 1.38 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Letohrad defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Letohrad scores more
41%
level
24%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
35%

Letohrad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Letohrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Letohrad vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov

Letohrad and Cidlina Novy Bydzov drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK OEZ Letohrad in Letohrad.