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Leštane vs Sindjelic Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Leštane
Leštane
FT
1 – 1
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
5/19/2021Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 35Stadion FK Leštane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leštane43%
×Draw28%
Sindjelic Beograd29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leštane
1.31
Sindjelic Beograd
1.03

Leštane creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Leštane
1.26
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

allows per match

Leštane
1.21
Sindjelic Beograd
1.37

finishing

Leštane+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leštane ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leštane or draw
71%
Leštane or Sindjelic Beograd
72%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
57%

Winning margin

Leštane wins by 2+
20%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leštane 1+ goals
73%
Leštane 2+ goals
38%
Leštane 3+ goals
14%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
64%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
28%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leštane (draw refunded)
59%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leštane at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leštane attack 1.26 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Leštane defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leštane scores more
43%
level
28%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
29%

Leštane at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leštane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leštane vs Sindjelic Beograd

Leštane and Sindjelic Beograd drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Leštane in Beograd.