Leštane vs Crvena Zvezda MML — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Leštane52%
Crvena Zvezda MML23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Leštane creates 61% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Leštane ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Leštane at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches
Crvena Zvezda MML away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Leštane attack 1.26 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63
Crvena Zvezda MML attack 0.81 + Leštane defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Leštane at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Leštane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
IMT Novi Beograd
Zvezdara
OFK Beograd
BSK Borca
Jedinstvo Su
Radnički Novi Beograd
TEK Sloga
Brodarac
Sremčica
Radnički Obrenovac
Teleoptik
Lokomotiva Beograd
MladenovacCrvena Zvezda MML
Polet Dorćol
Stepojevac VagaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Leštane host Crvena Zvezda MML on Wednesday, 31 March 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Leštane vs Crvena Zvezda MML
Leštane beat Crvena Zvezda MML 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 31, 2021.
The match was played at Stadion FK Leštane in Beograd.