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Lesotho vs Cape Verde Islands — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Lesotho
Lesotho
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands
9/9/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Setsoto Stadium (Maseru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lesotho36%
×Draw33%
Cape Verde Islands31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lesotho
0.92
Cape Verde Islands
0.83

Lesotho creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lesotho
0.67
Cape Verde Islands
0.67

allows per match

Lesotho
1.00
Cape Verde Islands
1.17

finishing

Lesotho+0.00on par
Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lesotho ↓

Cape Verde Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Lesotho or draw
69%
Lesotho or Cape Verde Islands
67%
Draw or Cape Verde Islands
64%

Winning margin

Lesotho wins by 2+
13%
Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lesotho 1+ goals
60%
Lesotho 2+ goals
23%
Lesotho 3+ goals
7%
Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals
56%
Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals
20%
Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lesotho (draw refunded)
54%
Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lesotho at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Cape Verde Islands away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lesotho attack 0.67 + Cape Verde Islands defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Cape Verde Islands attack 0.67 + Lesotho defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lesotho scores more
36%
level
33%
Cape Verde Islands scores more
31%

Lesotho at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lesotho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Lesotho 1–1 Cape Verde Islands

Lesotho and Cape Verde Islands drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Setsoto Stadium (Maseru).