Les Herbiers 2–1 Avranches: Result & Stats

Les Herbiers

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Avranches

11/17/2023

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade Massabielle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Les Herbiers33%

×Draw25%

Avranches42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Les HerbiersExpected goals in this matchAvranches

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.49

Les Herbiers

1.29

Avranches

1.49

Avranches creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.44

creates per match

1.86

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Les Herbiers

1.44

Avranches

1.86

allows per match

Les Herbiers

1.11

Avranches

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Les Herbiers+0.00on par

Avranches+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Herbiers ↓

Avranches →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Les Herbiers or draw

58%

Les Herbiers or Avranches

75%

Draw or Avranches

67%

Winning margin

Les Herbiers wins by 2+

14%

Avranches wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Les Herbiers 1+ goals

72%

Les Herbiers 2+ goals

37%

Les Herbiers 3+ goals

14%

Avranches 1+ goals

77%

Avranches 2+ goals

44%

Avranches 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Les Herbiers (draw refunded)

44%

Avranches (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Les Herbiers at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Avranches away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Les Herbiers attack 1.44 + Avranches defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avranches attack 1.86 + Les Herbiers defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Les Herbiers scores more

33%

level

25%

Avranches scores more

42%

Avranches at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avranches will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff