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Les Astres vs Unisport Bafang — Elite One 2019

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
1 – 2
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
4/7/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 13Stade Omnisport de Limbe (Limbé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Les Astres47%
×Draw26%
Unisport Bafang27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.49
Unisport Bafang
1.08

Les Astres creates 38% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 21 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.31
Unisport Bafang
1.10

allows per match

Les Astres
1.06
Unisport Bafang
1.67

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
73%
Les Astres or Unisport Bafang
74%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
53%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
23%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
77%
Les Astres 2+ goals
44%
Les Astres 3+ goals
19%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
66%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
29%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
63%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Unisport Bafang attack 1.10 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Les Astres scores more
47%
level
26%
Unisport Bafang scores more
27%

Les Astres at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Les Astres vs Unisport Bafang

Unisport Bafang beat Les Astres 2-1 in Elite One on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport de Limbe (Limbé).