Les Astres 4–1 Stade Renard: Result & Stats

Les Astres

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Stade Renard

12/15/2024

Elite One · Round 2Stade Mbappe Leppe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Les Astres41%

×Draw29%

Stade Renard30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Les AstresExpected goals in this matchStade Renard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.97

Les Astres

1.19

Stade Renard

0.97

Les Astres creates 23% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 96 away

1.31

creates per match

0.88

1.06

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Les Astres

1.31

Stade Renard

0.88

allows per match

Les Astres

1.06

Stade Renard

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par

Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Stade Renard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw

70%

Les Astres or Stade Renard

71%

Draw or Stade Renard

59%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+

18%

Stade Renard wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals

70%

Les Astres 2+ goals

33%

Les Astres 3+ goals

12%

Stade Renard 1+ goals

62%

Stade Renard 2+ goals

25%

Stade Renard 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)

58%

Stade Renard (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Les Astres scores more

41%

level

29%

Stade Renard scores more

30%

Les Astres at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff