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Les Astres vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
2/26/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 14Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Les Astres43%
×Draw27%
Fortuna Mfou30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.35
Fortuna Mfou
1.08

Les Astres creates 25% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 96 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.31
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Les Astres
1.06
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
70%
Les Astres or Fortuna Mfou
73%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
57%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
20%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
74%
Les Astres 2+ goals
39%
Les Astres 3+ goals
15%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
66%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
29%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
59%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Les Astres scores more
43%
level
27%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
30%

Les Astres at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Les Astres 2–3 Fortuna Mfou

Fortuna Mfou beat Les Astres 3-2 in Elite One on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Réunification in Douala.