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Fortuna Mfou vs Les Astres — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
1 – 0
Les Astres
Les Astres
4/8/2024Elite OneElite One · Relegation Round - 3Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Fortuna Mfou40%
×Draw27%
Les Astres32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.29
Les Astres
1.13

Fortuna Mfou creates 14% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 75 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Les Astres
1.03

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Les Astres
1.31

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
68%
Fortuna Mfou or Les Astres
73%
Draw or Les Astres
60%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
18%
Les Astres wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
72%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
37%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
14%
Les Astres 1+ goals
68%
Les Astres 2+ goals
31%
Les Astres 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
55%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
40%
level
27%
Les Astres scores more
32%

Fortuna Mfou at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fortuna Mfou 1–0 Les Astres

Fortuna Mfou beat Les Astres 1-0 in Elite One on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.