Les Astres 2–3 Dynamo de Douala: Result & Stats

Les Astres

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Dynamo de Douala

10/8/2023

Elite One · Round 3Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Les Astres37%

×Draw28%

Dynamo de Douala36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Les AstresExpected goals in this matchDynamo de Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.20

Les Astres

1.22

Dynamo de Douala

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 38 away

1.31

creates per match

1.34

1.06

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Les Astres

1.31

Dynamo de Douala

1.34

allows per match

Les Astres

1.06

Dynamo de Douala

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Dynamo de Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw

64%

Les Astres or Dynamo de Douala

72%

Draw or Dynamo de Douala

63%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+

16%

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals

70%

Les Astres 2+ goals

34%

Les Astres 3+ goals

12%

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals

70%

Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals

34%

Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)

51%

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.34 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Les Astres scores more

37%

level

28%

Dynamo de Douala scores more

36%

Les Astres at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff