Les Astres 0–3 APEJES Academy: Result & Stats

Les Astres

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

APEJES Academy

4/22/2026

Elite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Les Astres25%

×Draw23%

APEJES Academy52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Les AstresExpected goals in this matchAPEJES Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.79

Les Astres

1.16

APEJES Academy

1.79

APEJES Academy creates 54% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

1.22

creates per match

1.80

1.78

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Les Astres

1.22

APEJES Academy

1.80

allows per match

Les Astres

1.78

APEJES Academy

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par

APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

APEJES Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw

48%

Les Astres or APEJES Academy

77%

Draw or APEJES Academy

75%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+

10%

APEJES Academy wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals

69%

Les Astres 2+ goals

32%

Les Astres 3+ goals

11%

APEJES Academy 1+ goals

83%

APEJES Academy 2+ goals

53%

APEJES Academy 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)

32%

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.22 + APEJES Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

APEJES Academy attack 1.80 + Les Astres defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Les Astres scores more

25%

level

23%

APEJES Academy scores more

52%

APEJES Academy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff