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Les Aiglons Dalheim vs The Belval Belvaux — Cup 2020

Les Aiglons Dalheim
Les Aiglons Dalheim
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
The Belval Belvaux
The Belval Belvauxadvanced
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Les Aiglons Dalheim15%
×Draw13%
The Belval Belvaux72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Aiglons Dalheim
1.88
The Belval Belvaux
4.00

The Belval Belvaux creates 113% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Les Aiglons Dalheim
1.00
The Belval Belvaux
3.50

allows per match

Les Aiglons Dalheim
4.50
The Belval Belvaux
2.75

finishing

Les Aiglons Dalheim+0.00on par
The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Aiglons Dalheim ↓

The Belval Belvaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
82%18%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Les Aiglons Dalheim or draw
28%
Les Aiglons Dalheim or The Belval Belvaux
87%
Draw or The Belval Belvaux
85%

Winning margin

Les Aiglons Dalheim wins by 2+
7%
The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Les Aiglons Dalheim 1+ goals
85%
Les Aiglons Dalheim 2+ goals
56%
Les Aiglons Dalheim 3+ goals
29%
The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals
98%
The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals
90%
The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Les Aiglons Dalheim (draw refunded)
17%
The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Aiglons Dalheim at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

The Belval Belvaux away — creates 3.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Aiglons Dalheim attack 1.00 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

The Belval Belvaux attack 3.50 + Les Aiglons Dalheim defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 4.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Les Aiglons Dalheim scores more
15%
level
13%
The Belval Belvaux scores more
72%

The Belval Belvaux at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "The Belval Belvaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Les Aiglons Dalheim vs The Belval Belvaux

The Belval Belvaux beat Les Aiglons Dalheim 6-2 in Cup on September 21, 2025.