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Lernayin Artsakh vs Masis — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
PST
11:30
Masis
Masis
6/3/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh59%
×Draw20%
Masis21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
2.23
Masis
1.25

Lernayin Artsakh creates 78% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
Masis
1.14

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.35
Masis
2.57

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Masis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
79%
Lernayin Artsakh or Masis
80%
Draw or Masis
41%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
37%
Masis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
89%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
65%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
38%
Masis 1+ goals
71%
Masis 2+ goals
36%
Masis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
74%
Masis (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Masis attack 1.14 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
59%
level
20%
Masis scores more
21%

Lernayin Artsakh at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lernayin Artsakh face Masis (First League)

First League returns with Lernayin Artsakh hosting Masis. Match starts June 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lernayin Artsakh host Masis at Sisian Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.