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Lernayin Artsakh vs Lokomotiv — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
CANC
14:00
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
7/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh27%
×Draw21%
Lokomotiv52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
1.52
Lokomotiv
2.17

Lokomotiv creates 43% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
Lokomotiv
3.00

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.35
Lokomotiv
1.15

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
48%
Lernayin Artsakh or Lokomotiv
79%
Draw or Lokomotiv
73%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
12%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
78%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
45%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
20%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
89%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
64%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
34%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Lokomotiv defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lokomotiv attack 3.00 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
27%
level
21%
Lokomotiv scores more
52%

Lokomotiv at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lernayin Artsakh vs Lokomotiv — Match Preview

Lernayin Artsakh face Lokomotiv on July 4, 2020 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lernayin Artsakh host Lokomotiv at Sisian Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.