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Lernayin Artsakh vs Ararat II — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ararat II
Ararat II
3/25/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh47%
×Draw23%
Ararat II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
1.86
Ararat II
1.45

Lernayin Artsakh creates 28% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 83 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
Ararat II
1.55

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.35
Ararat II
1.84

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
Ararat II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Ararat II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
70%
Lernayin Artsakh or Ararat II
77%
Draw or Ararat II
53%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
26%
Ararat II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
84%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
55%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
28%
Ararat II 1+ goals
77%
Ararat II 2+ goals
42%
Ararat II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
61%
Ararat II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Ararat II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.84 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Ararat II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.86

Ararat II attack 1.55 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
47%
level
23%
Ararat II scores more
30%

Lernayin Artsakh at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lernayin Artsakh vs Ararat II

Lernayin Artsakh and Ararat II drew 1-1 in First League on March 25, 2025.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.