Lernayin Artsakh 3–0 Ararat-Armenia II

Lernayin Artsakh

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ararat-Armenia II

5/20/2024

First League · Round 29Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh48%

×Draw23%

Ararat-Armenia II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lernayin ArtsakhExpected goals in this matchArarat-Armenia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.42

Lernayin Artsakh

1.88

Ararat-Armenia II

1.42

Lernayin Artsakh creates 32% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 99 away

1.89

creates per match

1.48

1.35

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh

1.89

Ararat-Armenia II

1.48

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh

1.35

Ararat-Armenia II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Ararat-Armenia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw

71%

Lernayin Artsakh or Ararat-Armenia II

77%

Draw or Ararat-Armenia II

52%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+

27%

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals

85%

Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals

56%

Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals

29%

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals

76%

Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals

41%

Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)

62%

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more

48%

level

23%

Ararat-Armenia II scores more

29%

Lernayin Artsakh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff