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Lernayin Artsakh vs Ani Yerevan — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
FT
5 – 0
Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
8/27/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh70%
×Draw16%
Ani Yerevan14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
2.91
Ani Yerevan
1.28

Lernayin Artsakh creates 127% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
Ani Yerevan
1.21

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.35
Ani Yerevan
3.93

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Ani Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
86%
Lernayin Artsakh or Ani Yerevan
84%
Draw or Ani Yerevan
30%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
50%
Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
94%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
78%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
54%
Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
72%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
37%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
83%
Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.91

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
70%
level
16%
Ani Yerevan scores more
14%

Lernayin Artsakh at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lernayin Artsakh vs Ani Yerevan

Lernayin Artsakh beat Ani Yerevan 5-0 in First League on August 27, 2019.

The match was played at Sisian Stadium in Sisian.