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Lernayin Artsakh II vs West Armenia — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh II
Lernayin Artsakh II
CANC
11:00
West Armenia
West Armenia
4/15/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh II8%
×Draw11%
West Armenia82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh II
1.10
West Armenia
3.62

West Armenia creates 229% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00
West Armenia
3.02

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh II
4.22
West Armenia
1.20

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh II ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh II or draw
18%
Lernayin Artsakh II or West Armenia
89%
Draw or West Armenia
92%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+
3%
West Armenia wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals
67%
Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals
30%
Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals
10%
West Armenia 1+ goals
97%
West Armenia 2+ goals
87%
West Armenia 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)
9%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 3.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Lernayin Artsakh II scores more
8%
level
11%
West Armenia scores more
82%

West Armenia at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lernayin Artsakh II host West Armenia

April 15, 2023: Lernayin Artsakh II take on West Armenia in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lernayin Artsakh II host West Armenia at Sisian Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.