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Lerinés vs Pamplona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Lerinés
Lerinés
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Pamplona
Pamplona
2/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 19Estadio La Romaleta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lerinés31%
×Draw26%
Pamplona43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lerinés
1.19
Pamplona
1.43

Pamplona creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Lerinés
1.18
Pamplona
1.15

allows per match

Lerinés
1.71
Pamplona
1.19

finishing

Lerinés+0.00on par
Pamplona+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lerinés ↓

Pamplona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lerinés or draw
57%
Lerinés or Pamplona
74%
Draw or Pamplona
69%

Winning margin

Lerinés wins by 2+
13%
Pamplona wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lerinés 1+ goals
70%
Lerinés 2+ goals
33%
Lerinés 3+ goals
12%
Pamplona 1+ goals
76%
Pamplona 2+ goals
42%
Pamplona 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lerinés (draw refunded)
42%
Pamplona (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lerinés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Pamplona away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lerinés attack 1.18 + Pamplona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pamplona attack 1.15 + Lerinés defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lerinés scores more
31%
level
26%
Pamplona scores more
43%

Pamplona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pamplona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lerinés vs Pamplona

Pamplona beat Lerinés 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Romaleta in Lerín.