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Lerinés vs Beti Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Lerinés
Lerinés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Beti Onak
Beti Onak
5/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 34Estadio La Romaleta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lerinés35%
×Draw25%
Beti Onak39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lerinés
1.34
Beti Onak
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Lerinés
1.18
Beti Onak
1.13

allows per match

Lerinés
1.71
Beti Onak
1.51

finishing

Lerinés+0.00on par
Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lerinés ↓

Beti Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lerinés or draw
61%
Lerinés or Beti Onak
75%
Draw or Beti Onak
65%

Winning margin

Lerinés wins by 2+
16%
Beti Onak wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lerinés 1+ goals
74%
Lerinés 2+ goals
39%
Lerinés 3+ goals
15%
Beti Onak 1+ goals
76%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
41%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lerinés (draw refunded)
48%
Beti Onak (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lerinés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lerinés attack 1.18 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + Lerinés defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lerinés scores more
35%
level
25%
Beti Onak scores more
39%

Beti Onak at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Lerinés 1–1 Beti Onak

Lerinés and Beti Onak drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Romaleta in Lerín.