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Lerinés vs Avance Ezcabarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Lerinés
Lerinés
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 32Estadio La Romaleta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lerinés37%
×Draw26%
Avance Ezcabarte37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lerinés
1.34
Avance Ezcabarte
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 64 away

creates per match

Lerinés
1.18
Avance Ezcabarte
0.97

allows per match

Lerinés
1.71
Avance Ezcabarte
1.50

finishing

Lerinés+0.00on par
Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lerinés ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lerinés or draw
63%
Lerinés or Avance Ezcabarte
74%
Draw or Avance Ezcabarte
63%

Winning margin

Lerinés wins by 2+
17%
Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lerinés 1+ goals
74%
Lerinés 2+ goals
39%
Lerinés 3+ goals
15%
Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
74%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
39%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lerinés (draw refunded)
50%
Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lerinés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lerinés attack 1.18 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Lerinés defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lerinés scores more
37%
level
26%
Avance Ezcabarte scores more
37%

Lerinés at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lerinés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lerinés 2 – 2 Avance Ezcabarte

Lerinés and Avance Ezcabarte drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Romaleta in Lerín.