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LePa vs VJS II — Suomen Cup 2018

LePa
LePa
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
VJS II
VJS II
3/10/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKeski-Espoo 2 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

LePa8%
×Draw12%
VJS II80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LePa
1.01
VJS II
3.35

VJS II creates 232% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

LePa
1.17
VJS II
4.71

allows per match

LePa
2.00
VJS II
0.86

finishing

LePa+0.00on par
VJS II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LePa ↓

VJS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

LePa or draw
20%
LePa or VJS II
88%
Draw or VJS II
92%

Winning margin

LePa wins by 2+
3%
VJS II wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

LePa 1+ goals
64%
LePa 2+ goals
27%
LePa 3+ goals
8%
VJS II 1+ goals
96%
VJS II 2+ goals
84%
VJS II 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

LePa (draw refunded)
9%
VJS II (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LePa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

VJS II away — creates 4.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LePa attack 1.17 + VJS II defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

VJS II attack 4.71 + LePa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

LePa scores more
8%
level
12%
VJS II scores more
80%

VJS II at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "VJS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LePa 2 – 2 VJS II

LePa and VJS II drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at Keski-Espoo 2 TN in Espoo.