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LePa vs Töölön Taisto — Suomen Cup 2018

LePa
LePa
FT
2 – 1
Töölön Taisto
Töölön Taisto
9/12/2017Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundLeppävaaran Stadion tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

LePa17%
×Draw18%
Töölön Taisto65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LePa
1.15
Töölön Taisto
2.43

Töölön Taisto creates 111% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

LePa
1.17
Töölön Taisto
2.86

allows per match

LePa
2.00
Töölön Taisto
1.14

finishing

LePa+0.00on par
Töölön Taisto+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LePa ↓

Töölön Taisto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

LePa or draw
35%
LePa or Töölön Taisto
82%
Draw or Töölön Taisto
83%

Winning margin

LePa wins by 2+
6%
Töölön Taisto wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

LePa 1+ goals
68%
LePa 2+ goals
32%
LePa 3+ goals
11%
Töölön Taisto 1+ goals
91%
Töölön Taisto 2+ goals
69%
Töölön Taisto 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

LePa (draw refunded)
20%
Töölön Taisto (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LePa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Töölön Taisto away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LePa attack 1.17 + Töölön Taisto defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Töölön Taisto attack 2.86 + LePa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

LePa scores more
17%
level
18%
Töölön Taisto scores more
65%

Töölön Taisto at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Töölön Taisto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LePa vs Töölön Taisto

LePa beat Töölön Taisto 2-1 in Suomen Cup on September 12, 2017.

The match was played at Leppävaaran Stadion tekonurmi in Esbo.