LePa 1–2 Ponnistajat: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

LePa

1 – 2

Ponnistajat

4/4/2023

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundLeppävaaran urheilupuiston tekonurmi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

LePa10%

×Draw16%

Ponnistajat73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LePaExpected goals in this matchPonnistajat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

2.45

LePa

0.80

Ponnistajat

2.45

Ponnistajat creates 206% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

2.89

2.00

allows per match

0.44

creates per match

LePa

1.17

Ponnistajat

2.89

allows per match

LePa

2.00

Ponnistajat

0.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LePa+0.00on par

Ponnistajat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LePa ↓

Ponnistajat →

0–04%

0–110%

0–212%

0–310%

0–46%

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

LePa or draw

27%

LePa or Ponnistajat

84%

Draw or Ponnistajat

90%

Winning margin

LePa wins by 2+

Ponnistajat wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

LePa 1+ goals

55%

LePa 2+ goals

19%

LePa 3+ goals

Ponnistajat 1+ goals

91%

Ponnistajat 2+ goals

70%

Ponnistajat 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

LePa (draw refunded)

12%

Ponnistajat (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

LePa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Ponnistajat away — creates 2.89, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

LePa attack 1.17 + Ponnistajat defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.80

Ponnistajat attack 2.89 + LePa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

LePa scores more

10%

level

16%

Ponnistajat scores more

73%

Ponnistajat at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ponnistajat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff