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Leotar vs Sloga Doboj — 1st League - RS 2019

Leotar
Leotar
FT
2 – 2
Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
D. Ristic 74'
L. Zecevic 41' (pen)
E. Buljubasic 45'
M. Golubovic 35'
4/3/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 21Stadion Police

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Leotar51%
×Draw27%
Sloga Doboj22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leotar
1.44
Sloga Doboj
0.83

Leotar creates 73% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

creates per match

Leotar
1.88
Sloga Doboj
1.09

allows per match

Leotar
0.56
Sloga Doboj
1.00

finishing

Leotar+0.00on par
Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leotar ↓

Sloga Doboj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leotar or draw
78%
Leotar or Sloga Doboj
73%
Draw or Sloga Doboj
49%

Winning margin

Leotar wins by 2+
26%
Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leotar 1+ goals
76%
Leotar 2+ goals
42%
Leotar 3+ goals
18%
Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
56%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
20%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leotar (draw refunded)
70%
Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leotar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 64 matches

Sloga Doboj away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leotar attack 1.88 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sloga Doboj attack 1.09 + Leotar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leotar scores more
51%
level
27%
Sloga Doboj scores more
22%

Leotar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leotar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
M. Golubovic
41'
L. ZecevicPenalty
45'
E. Buljubasic
74'
D. Ristic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Leotar 2–2 Sloga Doboj

Leotar and Sloga Doboj drew 2-2 in 1st League - RS on April 3, 2021.

Goals: M. Golubovic (35'), L. Zecevic (41' pen), E. Buljubasic (45'), D. Ristic (74').

The match was played at Stadion Police in Trebinje.