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Leotar vs Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Leotar
Leotar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
5/25/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 33Stadion Police

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Leotar66%
×Draw21%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leotar
1.95
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
0.72

Leotar creates 171% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 51 away

creates per match

Leotar
1.88
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
0.88

allows per match

Leotar
0.56
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
2.02

finishing

Leotar+0.00on par
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leotar ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leotar or draw
87%
Leotar or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
79%
Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
34%

Winning margin

Leotar wins by 2+
41%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Leotar 1+ goals
86%
Leotar 2+ goals
58%
Leotar 3+ goals
31%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals
51%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals
16%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Leotar (draw refunded)
84%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leotar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 64 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leotar attack 1.88 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + Leotar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Leotar scores more
66%
level
21%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more
13%

Leotar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Leotar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Leotar 2–0 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Leotar beat Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2-0 in 1st League - RS on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Police in Trebinje.