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Leotar vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko — 1st League - RS 2019

Leotar
Leotar
FT
1 – 0
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3/13/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 17Stadion Police

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Leotar76%
×Draw15%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leotar
2.49
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.71

Leotar creates 251% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 21 away

creates per match

Leotar
1.88
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.86

allows per match

Leotar
0.56
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3.10

finishing

Leotar+0.00on par
FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leotar ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Leotar or draw
91%
Leotar or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
85%
Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
24%

Winning margin

Leotar wins by 2+
53%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Leotar 1+ goals
92%
Leotar 2+ goals
71%
Leotar 3+ goals
45%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
51%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
16%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Leotar (draw refunded)
90%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leotar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 64 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leotar attack 1.88 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.49

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Leotar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Leotar scores more
76%
level
15%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
9%

Leotar at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Leotar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Leotar 1–0 FK Jedinstvo Brcko

Leotar beat FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1-0 in 1st League - RS on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Police in Trebinje.